专项债绩效管理的制度环境和运行体系优化研究:基于不确定性视角

Research on Institutional Environment and Operation System Optimization of Performance Management of Special Bonds for Local Governments: Based on the Perspective of Uncertainty

专项债作为积极财政政策的重要抓手,发行规模快速增长,其使用绩效应引起高度重视。从国内外研究看,专项债绩效管理缺乏最佳国际实践的借鉴,在运行中也存在诸多难点,尤其是不确定性对其提出了新的挑战。受环境、行为等不确定性因素影响,项目现金流难以有效预测、存在债券兑付风险,同时,也存在风险分散、绩效评价、问责机制等问题,容易造成机会主义或逆向激励,也导致绩效评价更复杂、作用更难发挥。故而,专项债绩效评价应前瞻性、动态化应对不确定性,从完善政府债务制度、缓释总体及个体风险、增强信息对称、加强激励约束等角度注入确定性,持续引导相关主体行为,以期更好优化绩效管理的制度环境和运行效率。

As an important starting point of proactive fiscal policy,special bonds increase rapidly in the issuance scale.Therefore,its performance should be highly valued.In the domestic and foreign research,there is a lack of the reference of best international practice about the performance management of special bonds.And there are also many difficulties in operation,especially new challenges resulted from the state of uncertainty.Due to the influence of uncertain factors such as environment and behavior,cash flow is difficult to predict effectively and there exists bond payment risk.At the same time,there are also problems such as risk dispersion,assessment method and accountability mechanism,which are easy to cause opportunism or reverse incentives,and also make performance evaluation more complex.Therefore,the performance evaluation of special bonds should be forward-looking and dynamic to deal with uncertainty,inject certainty from the perspectives of improving the government debt system,easing overall and individual risks,enhancing information symmetry,and strengthening incentive constraints,and thus to continuously guide the behavior,so as to better optimize the institutional environment and operational efficiency of performance management.