走出经济学发展的微观迷宫

Reconstructing the Micro-Foundation of Economic Theory Development

日益复杂的社会经济活动迫使人们前所未有地严肃正视经济理论体系中宏观微观分离的缺陷及其对经济发展形成的障碍。经济起源、伴随和服务于人及社会的全面发展,只有聚焦人的行为,深化微观分析,采用与传统的建模实证相结合,并基于个体的建模分析(ABM),借助大数据、人工智能和机器学习等当代科技的强力支撑,构建虚拟社会和计算实验平台,实现多学科大跨度和深度的交叉整合,经济学发展才有望跳出微观迷宫和自设陷阱,凸显其人文社会科学的本质特征,从而更好地揭示宏观经济的复杂奥秘并提供更为合理的预见。

People,forced by increasingly complex social economic activity,are seriously facing an unprecedented and the separation between macro-micro defects in economic theory system and caused obstacles.Economics originates from,accompanies and serves the comprehensive development of human and society.Economics focuses on people’s behavior,deepens the analysis of micro-behavior,combines with traditional modeling empirical,and makes use of contemporary science and technology such as big data,artificial intelligence and machine based on ABM of the individual,which can build virtual society and multidisciplinary and achieve integration of large span and depth.In doing so,development of economics can be expected to jump out of microscopic maze and traps,highlight the essential characteristics of the humanities and social science,and further better reveal the complex mysteries of the macroeconomic and provide a more reasonable foresee.