地方艺术表演团体转企改制及其演出效应评估——基于中国省际面板数据的反事实分析

Transformation to Enterprise of Local Art Troupes and Its Performance Effect——Counterfactual Analysis Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data

文章在中国艺术表演团体转企改制进程阶段性划分基础上,根据全国31个省市自治区2014—2017年转企改制事件构造反事实分析框架,并运用倍差法对转企改制的演出效应进行因果识别。实证分析结果表明:首先,转企改制提高了企业性质艺术表演团体的平均演出收入水平(即期效应和滞后效应);但降低了事业性质艺术表演团体的平均演出收入水平(滞后效应);其次,转企改制具有自我强化性,实现了强制性变迁和诱致性变迁的有效结合;再次,转企改制的演出效应具有阶段性差异,但在巩固提高阶段推进转企改制却不会继续提高演出收入水平;最后,在集中推广阶段,转企改制的同群效应显著为正,表明转企改制的经验与教训在区域间得到了相互借鉴。基于上述结论,围绕重塑文化市场主体竞争力,健全现代文化市场体系等方面给出有关政策建议。

On the basis of the phased division of the transformation process of Chinese art troupes into enterprises,a counterfactual analysis framework is constructed on the events of transformation to enterprise of local art troupes.And then the causal recognition of performance effect and transformation by the method of Difference-in-difference shows that:(1)Transformation to enterprise of local art troupes improves the average performance income level of no-public art troupes with simultaneous and lagged effect,and depresses the performance income level of public art troupes with lagged effect;(2) Transformation to enterprise of local art troupes is self-reinforcing and realizing the combination of forced and induced change;(3)The performance effect result from transformation to enterprise of local art troupes is different in stages,and continue promoting the transformation in stage of consolidation and improvement will not raise the performance income level;(4) In the stage of centralized promotion,the peer effect of transformation is significantly positive,which indicates that the experience and lessons during the transformation process have been learned from each other in different regions.Base the conclusions mentioned above,some policy suggestions are proposed on fostering the competitiveness of cultural enterprises and perfecting the market system of modern culture.