基于SWAT模型和ESP思想的水文干旱预测

Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought

利用1970—2009年共40年的长系列水文气象等实测资料,基于机理性较强的分布式水文模型SWAT和集合预报ESP思想建立了一套干旱预报体系,采用1970—2009年的数据对SWAT模型进行参数优化,对赣江中下游部分区域未来长期(2010年4—10月)的水文干旱情势进行预测。研究以旬径流深距平百分率作为判定各区县旬水文干旱的预警指标,统计并预测了2010年4月上旬至10月下旬逐旬发生水文干旱的概率。结果表明,研究区5月中旬、6月中旬至7月下旬、8月中旬、9月上旬以及10月中下旬出现水文干旱的可能性相对较大,其中,7月上中旬和10月中下旬很有可能出现大范围水文干旱。预测结果可为地区抗旱减灾提供参考。

Based on measured data such as 40-year long series of hydrological and meteorological data from 1970 to 2009,and the distributed hydrological model SWAT with strong mechanism and integrated forecasting ESP thought,this paper builds a set of drought forecasting system,optimizes the parameters of SWAT model by data from 1970 to 2009,predicts the future long-term(April to October,2010)hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang,and calculates and predicts the probability of occurrence of hydrological drought from early April 2010 to late October 2010 in a ten-day basis with ten-day runoff depth anomaly percentage as the early warning indicator for judging the hydrological drought in various districts and counties.The results show that,hydrologic drought is more likely in the middle of May,middle of June to late July,middle of August,early September and middle of October to late October,among which a wide range of hydrological drought is likely to happen in early to middle of July and middle to late October.The predicting results can provide scientific guidance for drought resistance and disaster reduction.