新冠肺炎下的舆情演化逻辑研究

Research on the Evolution Logic of Public Opinion under COVID-19

【目的/意义】新冠肺炎发生后,各级地方政府及其下属机构在防治过程中不可避免地遇到新情况、新问题、新矛盾,各种舆情纷纷产生。正面舆情对宣传防控、引导防控等方面具有积极的推动作用,负面舆情在打击防治积极性的同时,也必将分散防控精力,干扰正常的防控秩序。【方法/过程】根据舆情温度及其处置效度的结构排列,新冠肺炎下,舆情等级的演化逻辑可以界定为Ⅰ级舆情、Ⅱ级舆情、Ⅲ级舆情甚至Ⅳ级舆情,舆情形式的演化逻辑可以描述为跟风、质疑、泄愤、仇慵和蹭热五个种类,舆情传播的演化逻辑一般呈现由简到繁的三个步骤。通过演化博弈分析可知,轻微舆情为地方政府所乐见,重度舆情为地方政府所担心。【结果/结论】政府、行业、官媒、专家、公众要充分利用舆情的"民意库""晴雨表""智囊团""减压阀"和"导火索"功能,在持续防控的基础上,根据舆情演化逻辑,探索出舆情治理的新路径。

【Purpose/significance】After the outbreak of COVID-19,all kinds of public opinions came into being and local governments at all levels and their subordinate agencies inevitably encountered new situations,new problems and new conflicts in the prevention and treatment process.Positive public opinion plays a positive role in promoting publicity,prevention and control,guiding prevention and control,etc.Negative public opinion not only impairs the enthusiasm of prevention and control,but also exposes some mechanism problems.【Method/process】Public opinion under COVID-19 can be divided into levels namelyⅠpublic opinion,Ⅱpublic opinion,Ⅲpublic opinion andⅣpublic opinion,its transmission mechanism can be divided into three stages from simple to complicated,five aspects respectively to form the characteristics of a copycat,doubt,anger,hatred and rub heat five kinds of public opinion.Through evolutionary game analysis,it can be seen that slight public opinion is welcomed by local governments,while severe public opinion is worried by local governments.【Result/conclusion】The government,industry,state media,experts and the public should make full use of the"public opinion","barometer","think tank","pressure relief valve"and"fuse"functions of public opinion,and resolutely win the people’s war,general war and resistance war on epidemic prevention and control.