降费率、严征缴与统筹账户基金可持续——基于省级数据的实证分析

Lower Contribution Rate,Strict Collection and Fund Sustainability of Pooling Account:Based on Provincial Data

《降低社会保险费率综合方案》的出台引发了关于基金可持续性的新一轮讨论。通过构建分省城镇人口预测模型、养老保险缴费收入模型、统筹账户支出模型以及养老基金结余模型,探讨降低缴费率和提高征缴率对中国各省统筹账户基金可持续性以及地区差异的影响,并分析由“高缴费率—低征缴率”模式向“低缴费率—高征缴率”模式转变的效应。研究发现:中国现行城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户基金收支状况存在较大的地区差异;降低缴费率将会对各省的统筹账户基金财务可持续性均带来消极影响,尽管程度并不相同;若在降低缴费率的同时提高征缴率,能够在一定程度上缓冲缴费率降低给各省基金收支平衡带来的影响,但其在缩小地区差距上的作用并不显著。建议利用“双降”的契机及时稳步推进征收体制改革以缓解养老保险基金“总量失衡”问题,通过尽快实现全国统筹以解决养老保险基金地区间的“结构性失衡”问题。

The comprehensive plan to reduce social insurance premium rates has sparked a new debate about the sustainability of the fund.The sustainability of endowment insurance funds is discussed in China's provinces by constructing the population model of participating of different provinces,the model of contribution income,the model of pooling account expenditure and the model of pension fund balance.The study found that:There is a big regional difference in the income and expenditure of the pooling account of the basic old-age insurance for urban employees in China.Simply reducing the contribution rate will have a negative impact on the financial sustainability of the pooling account fund of all provinces.While carrying out the reform of the collection and payment system,lowering the payment rate can buffer the impact of the reduction of the payment rate to some extent,but its role in narrowing the regional gap is not significant.This paper proposes to take advantage of the'double drop'opportunity to push forward the reform of the collection system in a timely and steady manner and realize the national pooling as soon as possible to solve the structural imbalance of the pension fund among regions.