江西省多模式热对流降水预报对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Multi-model Thermal Convective Precipitation Forecast in Jiangxi Province

通过对比EC数值预报模式、华东区域模式中尺度系统、华东区域模式快速同化更新系统、JXMESO模式4家模式系统预报与2019年7月18日至8月13日每日14:00—20:00午后热对流降水实况。结果表明:EC对午后热对流落区预报有较好的准确性,但降水强度预报偏差;华东区域模式中尺度系统和JXMESO在落区和强度预报上则都缺乏一定的准确性,JXMESO更是多次空报;华东区域模式快速同化更新系统则有较好的准确性,其预报的雷达反射率和低层风向产品有较好的指示意义。

By comparing the EC numerical forecasting model,the East China regional model mesoscale system,the East China regional model rapid assimilation updating system,the JXMESO model,the four model system forecasting and the daily thermal convection rainfall fact of 14—20 o′clock in the afternoon from July 18 to August 13,2019,the results show that the EC has good accuracy for the thermal convection in the afternoon forecasting of falling range,but forecast deviation of precipitation intensity.The East China regional model mesoscale system and JXMESO lack certain accuracy in the falling range and intensity forecasting.What’s more,JXMESO has a number of empty reports.At the same time,the East China regional model rapid assimilation updating system has better accuracy,and its predicted radar reflectivity and low-level wind direction products have better indication significance.