我国宏观调控政策的效果分析及工具创新

Analysis on the Effects of China's Macro-economic Policies and Tool Innovation

本文采用传统总量指标分析以及测算潜在经济增长率两种方法,深入探讨影响逆周期调控效果的主要因素,并研判我国宏观调控的效率和质量。传统的宏观调控工具不能解决宏观经济运行中的深层问题,为了推动宏观调控效果向纵深发展,本文立足于我国市场主体结构和行为特征,将国有经济规模和结构调整纳入宏观调控的"政策工具箱",构建三个层次的宏观调控目标体系,形成"总量政策+结构性政策"的宏观调控政策基本框架。在此基础上,研究当前我国宏观调控的主要任务及重心。

This paper adopts two methods of traditional aggregate index analysis and the measurement of potential economic growth rate to deeply explore the main factors that affect the effect of counter-cyclical control,and to study the efficiency and quality of China's macro-economic regulation.Traditional macro-economic tools cannot solve the deep-seated problems in the operation of the macro-economy.In order to promote the in-depth development of the macro-control effects,based on the main structure and behavior characteristics of China's market,this paper incorporates the adjustment of the scale and structure of the state-owned economy into the policy toolbox of macro-economic regulation,to build a three-level macro-control target system and form a basic macro-control policy framework of"total policy+structural policy".On this basis,it studies the main tasks and focus of China's current macro-economic regulation.