养老依赖、非农就业与中老年农户耕地租出——基于CHARLS三期面板数据分析

Elderly Support Dependent,Off-farm Employment and Mid-aged and Old Households to Rent Out Cultivated Land——Evidence from Three Waves Panel Data of CHARLS

本文利用"中国健康与养老追踪调查"(CHARLS)2011、2013、2015年的平衡面板数据,建立Logit模型,从中老年农户不同养老依赖方式选择、非农就业类型两个维度,针对性地研究了影响中老年农户耕地租出行为的主要因素。研究结果发现:(1)依赖于子女养老或储蓄养老方式对中老年农户耕地租出存在不显著的正向影响,但依赖于社会养老方式对中老年农户耕地租出存在显著的正向影响,将使中老年农户耕地租出概率提高3.2个百分点,高于依赖于子女养老或储蓄养老方式的中老年农户;(2)非农受雇以及非农自雇两种非农就业类型均对中老年农户耕地租出有显著正向影响,且参与非农自雇的中老年农户耕地租出的可能性更高,将使中老年农户耕地租出概率提高6.0个百分点,而参与非农受雇仅将使中老年农户耕地租出概率提高4.9个百分点。在此基础上,本文对估计结果进行了稳健性检验和内生性问题处理,结合我国国情,提出我国政府应为中老年农户提供更健全的社会养老保障,进一步替代耕地的保障作用;注重引导非农就业特别是非农自雇就业,从而促进耕地租出等对策建议。

Based on the balanced panel data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)in 2011, 2013 and 2015, we established Logit model to study the main factors affecting the mid-aged and old households renting out cultivated land behavior from two dimensions of elderly support dependent and off-farm employment types. The results show that:(1)The effect of choosing to rely on children or savings for old-age support on mid-aged and old households renting out cultivated land is not significant, but choice of relying on social pensions has a significantly positive effect on renting out cultivated land, which will increase the probability of renting out cultivated land by 3.2%, higher than households relying on children or savings for old-age support.(2)Both off-farm employed and off-farm self-employed jobs have significantly positive effects on mid-aged and old households renting out cultivated land behavior, and the probability of off-farm self-employed households is higher, which will increase the probability increased by 6.0%.While participation in off-farm employed jobs will increase the probability of mid-aged and old households renting out cultivated land by only 4.9%. Furthermore, the robustness check and endogenous treatment of the estimated results were carried out in this paper. Combined with the situation of China, we propose that the Chinese government should provide more complete social pensions systems for mid-aged and old farmers to replace the guarantee role of cultivated land;Pay attention to guide off-farm employment, especially the off-farm self-employed jobs, so as to promote the rental of cultivated land.