碳税对我国宏观经济及可再生能源发电技术的影响——基于电力部门细分的CGE模型

The impacts of carbon tax on China's macro-economy and the development of renewable energy power generation technology:Based on CGE model with disaggregation in the electric power sector.

本文基于电力行业上市公司年报数据将传统CGE模型中的电力部门细分为7个发电部门,其中包含水电、风电、光伏和生物质电4个可再生能源发电部门.首先基于传统CGE模型和电力部门细分的CGE模型比较了我国引入可再生能源发电技术前后征收碳税对宏观经济的影响,然后分析了单一碳税政策、碳税与可再生能源发电补贴复合政策对可再生能源发电技术发展的影响.研究发现:引入可再生能源发电技术后,征收碳税对宏观经济的负面影响相比没有引入而言将有所降低;征收碳税将促进可再生能源发电技术的发展;在征收碳税的同时如果对特定可再生能源发电技术给予补贴,可能会对未受到补贴且不具备成本比较优势的可再生能源发电技术产生“挤出效应”.

Based on the data from annual report of listed electric power companies,this paper divided the electric power sector in a traditional CGE model into 7 electric power sectors,including 4 renewable energy power sectors:hydro,wind,photovoltaic and biomass,to construct a CGE model with disaggregation in the electric power sector.Firstly,based on the two CGE models,the impacts of carbon tax on China’s macro-economy with and without introduction of renewable energy power generation technology were simulated and compared.Then,the impacts of a single carbon tax policy and a mixed policy combining carbon tax with subsidies for renewable energy power on the development of renewable energy power generation technology were analyzed.According to the results,the negative impacts of carbon taxation on the macro-economy would be alleviated after introduction of renewable energy power generation technology;carbon taxation would stimulate development of renewable energy power generation technology;using carbon tax revenues to subsidize specific renewable energy power generation technology would probably cause a“crowding-out effect”on other unsubsidized technologies with high levelized cost.