计及随机模糊双重不确定性的交直流混合微网优化运行

Optimization Operation of AC/DC Hybrid Microgrid Considering Random Fuzzy Double Uncertainties

为解决风光出力的不确定性造成微网日前调度偏差大的问题,将随机模糊理论引入到交直流混合微网优化运行中。基于不确定性理论将风速定义为随机模糊变量,用极大似然法提取Weibull分布参数的隶属度函数,建立日前调度经济性最优的随机模糊机会约束优化模型,将随机模糊模拟、神经网络和混沌粒子群算法相结合求解双重不确定性优化模型。通过设置确定性、随机性和随机模糊性3种情景进行仿真,分析3种情景的日前调度出力计划以及不平衡功率调整方案,验证了计及随机模糊双重不确定性的机会约束模型在交直流混合微网优化运行中的正确性和可行性。

In order to deal with the large day-ahead dispatch deviation of microgrid caused by the uncertainty of wind and solar output,the random fuzzy theory is introduced into the optimization operation of AC/DC hybrid microgrid.Based on the uncertainty theory,the wind speed is defined as a random fuzzy variable,and the membership functions of the Weibull distribution parameters are extracted by the maximum likelihood method,so that a random fuzzy chance constrained optimization model to minimizing the day-ahead dispatch cost is established.The random fuzzy simulation,neural network and chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm are combined to solve the dual-uncertainty optimization model.By setting three scenarios:deterministic,stochastic and random fuzziness,the day-ahead dispatch schedule and the intra-day unbalanced power adjustment program of the three scenarios are analyzed.The correctness and feasibility of the random fuzzy dual-uncertainty model in the optimal operation of AC/DC hybrid microgrid are verified.