中国沿海地区经济结构变动对海洋环境的影响

The Impact of Economic Structure Change on the Marine Environment in China’s Coastal Areas

中国沿海经济结构的研究对海洋环境的发展意义重大,然而二者之间的定量关系及内在机理尚不完全清楚。以2007-2016年为研究时段,我国沿海11省(区、市)为研究区域,借助固定效应以及门槛模型,测度经济结构变动与海洋环境之间的关系。结果表明:①在经济结构中产业结构(-0.099)对海洋的弹性系数最大,其次是经济增速(-0.058),投资对象为正向影响,但不显著;非经济结构中,技术进步(0.052)的弹性系数最大,其中环境规制(-0.045)、人口规模(-0.045)抑制海洋环境的改善。②区域对比北部、东部海洋经济圈产业结构对海洋环境起抑制作用,另外,东部海洋经济圈环境规制、人口规模与海洋环境水平呈明显的负相关性;南部海洋经济圈相对于其他两个区域,结果不显著。③将产业结构、技术进步作为门槛变量,在各自的作用下分别存在双重门槛和单一门槛。产业结构门槛值为0.533、0.462,仅河北,福建未跨越第二门槛;科研能力门槛值为40,仅河北、福建、海南未跨过门槛值。因此,应适度调整产业结构,注重经济增长的质量,合理控制城镇人口的流动,积极鼓励科研创新,实现经济与海洋环境协调发展。

The study of China′s coastal economic structure is of great significance to the development of marine environment, but the quantitative relationship and internal mechanism of the two are not completely clear. In this thesis, the effects of economic structure change on the marine environment in 11 coastal provinces of China from 2007 to2016 are quantitatively assessed by using fixed effect model and threshold model. The results illustrate that, firstly, in the economic structure, the elasticity coefficient of the industrial structure(-0.064) to the ocean is the largest, the next is the scale structure(-0.0579), the investment structure is the positive influence, but is not notable;environmental regulation(-0.0451) and population size(-0.0452) inhibit the improvement of marine environment. Secondly, the environmental regulation, population size and the level of the marine environment in the eastern marine economic circle are negatively related to each other The results for the southern marine economic circle were less significant than for the other two regions. Finally, taking industrial institution and scientific research ability as the threshold variables, there are double threshold and single threshold respectively under their respective functions. The numerical value of industrial structure threshold is 0.533, 0.462, only Hebei Province, Fujian Province did not cross the second threshold, and the threshold of scientific research capacity is 40, only Hebei Province, Fujian Province and Hainan Province crossed the threshold. Thus it can be seen that the industrial structure should be adjusted appropriately, the quality of economic growth be emphasized, the flow of urban population be properly controlled, the scientific research and innovation will be actively encouraged, and the coordinated development of economy and marine environment be realized.