塞罕坝地区森林虫害暴发历史及其与气候因子的关系

Relationship between Forest Pest Infestation History and Climatic Factors in Saihanba Area

利用森林虫害暴发记录与气候响应分析、叠加点事件(SEA)分析等方法开展塞罕坝地区近几十年来森林虫害暴发与气候因子关系的研究。结果表明:研究区森林虫害暴发的主要影响因子是温度,降水影响较弱,其中月最高温度的影响性强于月平均温度及月最低温度。森林虫害暴发与上一年5、7、8、9月份及当年3、7、8月份的月最高温度显著正相关(P<0.05),与上一年5、6、7、9月份的月平均温度显著正相关(P<0.05);与上一年6月份及当年5、6月份的月最低温度显著正相关(P<0.05);与上一年7月份及当年7月份的月降水量显著负相关(P<0.05)。森林虫害暴发面积的前3个最大年份分别为1989年、2002年、2005年,叠加点事件分析进一步表明,高温(上一年5—7月份平均温度及当年7—8月份最高温度)和干旱(上一年7月份降水量、当年7月份降水量)是导致森林虫害高暴发的气候因素。气候持续变暖将加剧该地区“暖干化”现象,虫害暴发次数或虫灾影响可能会显著增强。

We used forest pest outbreaks and climate response analysis and superposition point event analysis to study the relationship between forest pest outbreaks and climatic factors in the Saihanba area in recent decades.The main limiting factor of forest pest outbreak in the study area is temperature,while the influence of precipitation is weak;the maximum monthly temperature is more restrictive than the monthly average temperature and the monthly minimum temperature.The forest pest outbreak was significantly positively correlated with the highest temperature in May,July,August,September and the March,July,and August of the previous year(P<0.05),compared with May and June of the previous year.The monthly mean temperatures in July and September were significantly positively correlated(P<0.05);they were significantly positively correlated with the monthly minimum temperatures in June of the previous year and May and June of the previous year(P<0.05).The monthly mean precipitation of the month and July of that year was significantly negatively correlated(P<0.05).The first three largest years of forest pest outbreaks areas were 1989,2002,and 2005,and the superposition event(SEA)analysis further showed that the high temperature(average temperature from May to July of last year and the highest temperature from July to August of the year),and drought(precipitation in July of last year and precipitation in July of that year)is a climatic factor that causes forest pests to explode.Continued warming of the climate will exacerbate the“warm drying”phenomenon in the region,and the number of pest outbreaks or the impact of pests may increase significantly.