低收入家庭现金转移支付的消费刺激作用——来自城乡居民最低生活保障项目的经验证据

The Consumption Stimulating Effect of Cash Transfer Payment for Low-Income Household——Empirical Evidence from the Urban and Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program

城乡居民最低生活保障制度是我国社会保障体系中的重要内容。本文考察对低保家庭的现金转移支付对家庭消费的刺激作用。估计结果显示,对低保家庭的现金转移支付显著促进了家庭总消费。人均低保补助每增加1%,人均家庭总支出提高了0.159%。现金转移支付的消费刺激作用主要体现在家庭消费性支出和福利性支出上。对于消费性支出,对低保家庭的现金转移支付仅仅增加了低保家庭的食物支出,衣物、家用电器、教育、娱乐等支出并没有增加。进一步的分析表明,对低保家庭的消费刺激作用在农村地区体现的更加明显。机制分析表明,低保家庭仅增加了食物支出的原因是由于低收入家庭的高储蓄倾向、社区居民监督以及福利依赖效应。低保家庭获得的现金转移支付每增加1%,家庭储蓄率增加0.350%。本文的研究结论对于完善低保制度、提高低收入居民福利具有借鉴意义。

Urban and Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program(URMLSGP)is one of the important social guarantee programs in China.This paper evaluates the consumption stimulating effect of cash transfer payment by using the Urban and Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program.The estimation results show that the cash transfer payment significantly promotes the total household consumption.For every 1%increase of cash transfer,total household expenditure per capita increased by 0.159%.The consumption stimulus effect of cash transfer payment is mainly reflected in consumption expenditure and welfare expenditure.For consumption expenditure,cash transfer payments only increased the food expenditure,while expenditure on clothing,household appliances,education,and entertainment did not increase.Further analysis shows that this effect is more obvious in rural areas.The mechanism analysis shows that the reason is the high saving tendency of low-income families,the supervision of community residents and the effect of welfare dependence.For every 1%increase in cash transfer payment received by a minimumincome family,the household savings rate increases by 0.350%.This study is meaningful to the improvement of Urban and Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program.