基于VAR模型的海南旅游业发展与农民收入水平互动关系研究

Interactive Relationship Between Tourism Development and Farmers’Income in Hainan Based on VAR Model

旅游业是海南省社会经济发展的支柱产业和“十三五”期间发展的“十二大重点产业”.研究旅游业发展与农民收入水平之间的动态关系是一个具有重要现实意义的课题.文章运用VAR模型对海南建省以来(1988—2018年)旅游业发展和农民可支配收入等时间序列数据进行了分析.结果表明:两者之间的动态关系非对称,旅游业发展对农民收入水平的提高效果相对微弱,而农民可支配收入增长率对旅游业发展的影响相对较大.其具体体现:旅游业发展水平每提升1%,农民可支配收入增长率可在未来一期上升0.002%;农民可支配收入每增长1%,旅游业收入水平提高4%.希望研究结论可为海南省未来国际旅游岛和自由贸易港的建设及相关领域的发展提供决策参考.

Tourism is the pillar industry of Hainan province’s social and economic development,and it is also the first of the“12 key industries”that Hainan province will focus on during the 13th five-year plan period.Whether the development of tourism improves the well-being of the people in Hainan province and the dynamic relationship between the development of tourism and farmers’income level is a research topic of great practical significance.Using the VAR model to analyze the time series data of tourism development and farmers’disposable income since the establishment of Hainan province(1988—2018),the results show that the dynamic relationship between the two is asymmetric,the effect of tourism development on the improvement of farmers’income level is relatively weak,while the growth rate of farmers’disposable income has a relatively large impact on the development of tourism.Specifically,when the development level of tourism is increased by 1%,the growth rate of farmers’disposable income can increase by 0.002%in the next period,and for every 1%increase in the farmers’disposable income,the income level of tourism will increase by 4%.The conclusion can provide an important reference for the future development of international tourism island and free trade zone.