经济政策不确定性、货币政策与消费者价格指数——基于非对称影响的理论与实证分析

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Monetary Policy,and Consumer Price Index:Theoretical and Empirical Research Based on Asymmetric Influence

消费者价格指数的稳定对一国经济持续发展至关重要,也是央行制定货币政策时重要的参考指标。基于非对称框架,可以构建融入经济政策不确定性的菲利普斯曲线,进而阐释经济政策不确定性、利率、货币供应量对消费者价格指数的非对称作用机理。而运用NARDL模型研究经济政策不确定性冲击、货币政策冲击对消费者价格指数的长短期非对称传导效应,结果表明:经济政策不确定性、货币政策对消费者价格指数的影响是非对称的。其中,经济政策不确定性降低时对消费者价格指数影响更大;短期内,货币政策放宽对消费者价格指数的作用更为明显;长期内,紧缩性的货币政策对消费者价格指数的作用更为明显。因此,政策制定者要考虑到经济政策不确定性、货币政策的非对称调控效果,实施稳健中性的货币政策,以确保中国经济保持高质量发展。

The stability of the consumer price index(CPI)is crucial to the sustainable development of a country’s economy,andconsumer price index is an important reference indicator for the central bank when making monetary policies.This paper first constructs the Phillips curve of the expansion form,and expounds the asymmetric action mechanism of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),interest rate and money supplyto the CPI.Then the nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model(NARDL model)is used to study asymmetric effects of EPU and monetary policies on CPI in the short and longrun.The results show thatthe impact of EPU and monetary policies on the CPI is asymmetric in the short and longrun.The decrease in EPU has a greater impact on the CPI.In the shortrun,the effect of loose monetary policy on the CPI is more obvious.In the longrun,tightening monetary policieshave more effects on the CPI.Finally,it is pointed out that policy makers should take into account the asymmetric effect of monetary policies and EPU,and implement a stable and neutral monetary policy to ensure the highquality development of China’s economy.