我国农村留守人口规模、家庭结构与发展趋势

The Scale,Family Structure and Evolution Trend of China′s Rural Left-Behind Population

利用2000年、2010年全国第五、第六次人口普查抽样数据和2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,推算出三个年份的农村留守人口及家庭户规模并判断其发展趋势,进一步甄别农村留守家庭居住类型得出:两代或三代人共同留守仍是主要类型,其中三代人共同留守比例增加,独自留守的比例锐减,与其他人留守的比例大幅上升,体现出留守家庭及成员的生存发展策略。据此研究进一步提出理论思考:依托农村社会治理,积极推进农村留守家庭建设;在“结构与行动”框架下理解农村留守问题;制度设计和公共政策应当嵌入家庭视角。

The study is based on the fifth census of 2000 sampling data,1%population sampling data in 2005,the sixth census sampling data in 2010 to calculate the three years of rural left-behind population and remaining household size and judge the trend of its development;the data were further mined to identify the residential types of rural left-behind population and their families,it is concluded that two or three generations left-behind is still the main type,in which the proportion of the three generations left-behind is increased and the proportion of self left-behind decreased sharply,and with others left-behind increased significantly,showing a strong survival and development strategy.According to it,we further put forward theoretical thinking:based on the rural social governance,we should promote the construction of rural left-behind families actively,understand the problem under the framework of“structure and action”,and embed the family perspective in the system design and public policy.