城市蓝天保卫战行动协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体效果评估——以唐山市为例

An Effectiveness Evaluation of Co-controlling Local Air Pollutants and GHGs by Implementing Blue Sky Defense Action at City Level——A Case Study of Tangshan City

为满足在城市层面开展蓝天保卫战行动、协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体效果评估的管理需求,本文构建了评估方法体系,明确了评估流程,并梳理了评估参数获取途径。本文所推荐的协同减排量核算方法和协同控制效果评估方法包括:采用排放因子法计算各措施的单项大气污染物和单项温室气体减排量,计算各措施的局地大气污染物当量(LAPeq)和二氧化碳当量(CO2-eq)减排效果,进而采用协同控制效应坐标系分析和协同控制交叉弹性分析开展协同控制效果评估。本文以唐山市2018年蓝天保卫战行动为案例,选择12项子措施开展试点评估,结果显示:这12项子措施在减排LAPeq 13840.89 t/a的同时,可协同减排温室气体1009.43万t CO2-eq/a;所评估的措施均位于协同控制效应坐标系第一象限;协同控制交叉弹性Els CO2-eq/LAPeq为6.66,即每减排1个百分点的LAPeq,可协同减排6.66个百分点的温室气体。研究表明,本文所提出的评估方法体系具有较好的适用性,可推广应用于城市蓝天保卫战行动协同控制局地大气污染物和温室气体评估工作中。

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of co-control of local air pollutants and GHGs emission in implementing Blue Sky Defense Action Plan at city level,we proposed an evaluation methodology,clarified the assessment process,and combed the ways to acquire necessary data.The methods proposed for accounting emission co-reductions and evaluating the effectiveness of co-control include:the emission and reduction accounting for air pollutants and GHGs based on emission factors method,local air pollutant equivalent(LAPeq)and CO2 equivalent(CO2-eq)accounting,co-control effectiveness evaluating through co-control effects coordinate system,and co-control cross-elasticity analysis.Taking the action of Tangshan City in 2018 as a case,the selected 12 measures reduced 13840.89 t/a of LAPeq and simultaneously reduced 10094.30 Kt CO2-eq/a of GHGs emission.All the evaluated measures were located in the first quadrant of the co-control effects coordinate system.The cross-elasticity of ElsCO2-eq/LAPeq amounted to 6.66,meaning that 1 percent of LAPeq emission reduction synergistically led to 6.66 percent of GHGs emission reduction.The results showed that the proposed evaluation methodology has robustness,and can be well applied to assess the co-control effectiveness of implementing the Blue Sky Defense Action at city level.