人口特征与商品住房价格的关系及其政府调控——基于对南京市近15年统计数据的实证检验

Research on the Relationship between Population Characteristics and Commodity Housing Price and Its Government Regulation——Based on the Analysis of Recent 15 Years Statistical Data in Nanjing

笔者深入研究了人口特征的内部结构对住房价格的影响,并探究其关系的内在机理。通过对南京市2003—2017年人口特征和商品住房价格的统计数据先后分别进行平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲检验,探讨各变量的影响程度。研究结果显示,南京市住房价格的变化与性别比、家庭收入、城镇化率、自然增长率有关,与家庭结构无关;性别比、自然增长率对住房价格呈负向影响,家庭收入和城镇化率对住房价格呈正向影响。研究发现,政府调控商品住房价格的困境源于政策的摇摆性。研究结论认为,政府应当维持男女比例的平衡,弱化家庭对住房的地位性消费需求;合理管控人口增长,各地政府应结合实情出台具体引导政策;缩小收入差距,丰富住房种类;创新城镇化推进模式,追求健康城镇化可持续发展道路。

The author lucubrated the influence of the internal structure of population characteristics on housing prices and explore the internal mechanism of its relationship.The methods of research:through the statistical data of population characteristics and commodity housing prices in Nanjing from 2003 to 2017,a quantity of tests are conducted in this paper to ascertain the effect degree of variables,which includes stationary test,Johansen co-integration test,Granger test and pulse test.The results of research:the change of housing prices in Nanjing is related to the sex ratio,income structure,urbanization ratio and natural increase of growth,but not relevant with the structure of family;the sex ratio and natural increase of growth have negative impact on housing prices while income structure and urbanization ratio have positive impact on housing prices.The discovery of research:the government’s dilemma in regulating commodity housing prices stems from the swaying of policies.The conclusion of research:the government should maintain the balance between men and women,weaken the family’s demand for housing consumption;rationally control population growth,local governments combine specific conditions to introduce specific guidance policies;narrow income gaps,enrich housing types;innovate the model for promoting urbanization and pursue a healthy and sustainable path of urbanization.