中国船舶产业产能供需影响因素研究

An Analysis of the Impact the Capacity Supply and Demand of China s Shipping Industry

改革开放以来,中国船舶产业发展迅速,产能相对过剩。总量过剩和结构性过剩是中国船舶产业产能相对过剩的两大特点。市场经济的周期性、船舶企业的窖藏要素和行为策略、产业技术壁垒、地方政府对产业发展的不当干预等因素都是中国船舶产业过剩的主要成因。抓住国家“一带一路”倡议机遇,整合国内不同性质的船舶企业,深化混合所有制改革,实现企业间从目前平层混乱竞争关系向产业雁阵有序共赢关系转变,建立产业内部配套供需平衡和总体产能与市场需求平衡的发展结构体系,是中国船舶与海工装备制造业去产能的科学选择。

Since the reform and opening up,China s shipbuilding industry has developed rapidly and made remarkable achievements.The serious relative overcapacity has laid a huge hidden danger to our country s healthy economic development and social stability.The two major characteristics of the relative overcapacity of China s shipbuilding industry are the total overcapacity and the structural overcapacity.The periodicity of market economy,factor storage and strategic behavior of shipbuilding enterprises,industrial technical barriers and improper interference of local governments in industrial development are the main causes of excess shipbuilding industry in China.We should seize the opportunity of the“Belt and Road”initiative,integrate the shipbuilding enterprises with different properties in China,deepen the reform of mixed ownership,and realize the transformation of the relationship between enterprises from the current level of chaotic competition to the orderly and win-win relationship between the industry and geese,and establish a development structure system that balances the supply and demand of industries and the overall production capacity and the market demand.Scientific selection of production capacity.