安徽省房地产泡沫测度分析

An Analysis of Real Estate Bubble Measurement in Anhui Province

针对2001~2017年安徽省是否存在房地产泡沫以及程度大小问题,从供给、需求、资金信贷和价格评价四个维度选取11个指标,基于2001~2017年安徽省房地产数据构建房地产泡沫综合评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法进行实证研究,结果表明:2001~2017年安徽省房地产泡沫呈平稳下降趋势,其中,部分年份房地产泡沫得分起伏较大。最后从行政监管、税收制度、土地市场、金融监管四个方面,针对安徽省房地产市场现状提出完善房地产调控的政策建议。

In view of whether there is a real estate bubble and the degree of magnitude in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2017,select 11 indicators from the four dimensions of supply,demand,capital credit and price evaluation,and construct a comprehensive evaluation of real estate bubbles based on real estate data from 2001 to 2017 in Anhui Province The index system,using the principal component analysis method to conduct empirical research,the results show that:from 2001 to 2017,the real estate bubble in Anhui Province showed a steady downward trend,of which,some years the real estate bubble score fluctuated greatly.Finally,from the four aspects of administrative supervision,taxation system,land market,and financial supervision,the paper proposes policy recommendations for improving real estate regulation and control in light of the current situation of the real estate market in Anhui Province.