当前经济全球化的深层矛盾和基本走势——从零和博弈到正和博弈:一个政治经济学的新视角

Confronting the Deep Contradiction and the Trend of Economic Globalization——From Zero-sum Game to Positive-sum Game:A New Perspective of Political Economy

本轮全球化的特点是发达国家跨国公司以最大化资本赢利为目的在全球配置生产要素,同时也使发展中国家的生产要素得到优化配置,结果是双赢的。1978年中国经济改革开放融入全球化具有划时代意义,为全球经济增长和本国经济增长作出贡献。2008年金融危机之后全球化出现逆转。西方主流经济学以理性经济人为对象、资源优化配置为目的的高度抽象的研究范式,难以有效解释日趋复杂的全球化现象。因此需要研究方法创新,聚焦主权国家的全球化行为,深入分析战后由美国主导的国际治理结构和国际货币体系的内在矛盾。全球化导致的全球区域非均衡增长、发达国家实体经济衰落、金融泡沫化发展、各阶层收入差距扩大,是当今民粹主义、逆全球化行为泛滥的深层原因。中美关系是未来全球化进程中最为关键的因素,目前两国合作与竞争关系日趋复杂,但两国“正和博弈”空间大于“零和博弈”空间,仍然有可能在多元政治体制基础上形成共容利益,共同为全球治理结构的建设作出贡献。

This round of globalization is characterized by the fact that multinational corporations in developed countries allocate production factors globally for the purpose of capital return maximization, and the production factors in developing countries are also optimally allocated. This contributes to a win-win situation. The highly abstract research paradigm of western mainstream economics, which takes rational economic agents as research objects and optimal allocation of resources as purpose, is increasingly difficult to explain the complex phenomenon of globalization effectively. We need innovation in research methods which focus on the globalization behavior of sovereign states, analyze the inner contradictions between the post-war international governance structure and the monetary system led by the United States, reveal the global disequilibrium in regional growth caused by globalization, the decline of real economy in developed countries, the growing bubble in financial sectors, and the current trend of populism and anti-globalization due to the widening of income gap among all sectors. The China-U. S. relations is the most critical factor in the process of globalization in the future. The cooperation and competition between the two countries is becoming increasingly complex, however, the space of positive-sum game is larger than zero-sum game, which can still form a common interest on the basis of multiple political systems and contribute to the construction of global governance structure.