中国及广东省电能利用现状和潜力研究

Study on the Current Situation and Future Potential of Power Utilization in China and Guangdong Province

分析近年来中国不同种类电力生产和总消费量,对近6年和近3年的用电增长率数据进行拟合。分析不同种类电力生产特点,考虑现阶段疫情影响,使用变化的电能替代实施后的用电增长率拟合公式对十四五用电量进行计算,基于经济和用电现状修正预测值。对广东省用电数据分析,考虑大湾区建设和疫情影响并基于拟合公式对广东省十四五用电量进行修正预测。

This paper analyzes the electric production of different kinds and total consumption in China in recent years,and fits the growth rate data of electric consumption in recent 3 years.To analyze the characteristics of different kinds of electric production,with consideration impact of the current epidemic situation and using changed fitted formula of the electric consumption growth rate after implementation the electric consumption is calculated in the 14 th plan,and predicted value is corrected with the economy and current situation of electric consumption.With the analysis of power consumption data in Guangdong Province,considering the construction of Dawan district and impact of the epidemic situation,and by the fitting formula the power consumption in the 14 th plan of Guangdong Province is revised and predicted.