中国机电产品出口东盟的贸易潜力研究

Research on the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to ASEAN

基于2010—2018年中国对东盟国家机电产品出口贸易额的面板数据,通过贸易引力模型实证分析影响中国对东盟国家出口机电产品的因素,并在此基础上测算中国机电产品出口到东盟各国的贸易潜力大小。实证结果表明:进出口国家经济规模、贸易国双方拥有共同语言以及存在共同边界对中国向东盟出口机电产品具有显著正向影响,但地理距离和人民币兑美元汇率有负向影响。中国与东盟十国的贸易潜力指数分析结果显示:中国向文莱、菲律宾和马来西亚三个国家出口机电产品的贸易潜力属于巨大型;中国向缅甸和老挝出口机电产品的贸易潜力属于开拓型;中国向印度尼西亚、新加坡、柬埔寨、越南和泰国五个国家出口机电产品的贸易潜力属于再造型。最后,基于模型结果,提出了促进中国机电产品对东盟十国出口的相关对策建议。

Based on the panel data of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the factors influencing China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to ASEAN countries through the trade gravity model,and on this basis,calculates the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to ASEAN countries.The empirical results show that:the economic scale of the importing and exporting countries,the common language and border of the trading countries have a significant positive impact on China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to ASEAN,but the geographical distance and the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar have a negative impact on them.The analysis results of the trade potential index between China and the ten ASEAN countries show that the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to Brunei,Philippines and Malaysia is huge,that the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to Myanmar and Laos is pioneering and that the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exported to Indonesia,Singapore,Cambodia,Vietnam and Thailand is recreating.Finally,based on the results of the model,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the export of China’s mechanical and electrical products to the ten ASEAN countries.