1980—2015年伊犁盆地土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力研究

Analysis on Land Use/Cover Change and Driving Farces in Yili Basin from 1980 to 2015

通过对1980—2015年伊犁盆地土地利用/覆被变化时空演变的研究,为实现伊犁盆地地区社会经济与自然环境更加友好、协调地发展提供参考依据。利用地理信息系统(GIS)相关技术,以1980、2000、2010、2015年新疆伊犁盆地Landsat-MSS/TM/ETM遥感影像数据、气象数据与社会经济数据为主要数据源,分析并研究了伊犁盆地近35年的土地利用/覆被变化特征及其归因。结果表明:研究期间,变化最为显著的是草地,变化率为5.072%,共计减少2801 km^2,退化较为严重;其次是耕地,变化率是3.676%,共计增加2030 km^2,增加趋势明显;变化最不明显的是林地,变化率是0.045%。同时研究区内的半永久性冰川雪地面积出现了小幅度的降低,盐碱地、沼泽地、沙地出现了不同程度的增加,表明生态环境存在小幅度恶化现象,值得警示。当地的社会经济发展状况与自然条件共同塑造了研究区的土地利用/覆被变化现状,其中社会经济因素是研究区土地覆被变化的主要推动因素。

By studying the temporal and spatial evolution of land use/cover change in Yili Basin from 1980 to 2015,the reference basis for realizing a more friendly and coordinated development of social economy and natural environment in Yili Basin are provided.Using geographic information system(GIS)technology,remote sensing image data of Landsat-(Landsat-multispectral scanner)MSS/thematic mapper(TM)/enhanced thematic mapper(ETM),meteorological data,and social and economic data in 1980,2000,2010,and 2015 in the Yili Basin were used,with which the variations in land use and vegetation cover in recent 35 years in the study area were analyzed.The results show that the most significant change is in grassland,reduced by 5.072%in area or 2801 km^2,which is a serious degradation,while the areas of arable land increases by 3.676%or 2030 km^2,showing an obvious trend of increase,and the least significant change is in forest land,which is reduced by 0.045%.Meanwhile,the semi-permanent glacier snow area shows a small reduction,and saline land,marshland,and sand land appeared to increase to varying degrees,indicating a small deterioration trend in the ecological environment,which shall be a warning sign.The local social-economic development and natural conditions co-shaped the land use and vegetation cover since 1980 in the study area,of which the social-economic factor is the main driving factor.