湖北省及中国其他地区COVID-19疫情分析

Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei province

目的认知我国COVID-19疫情发展规律,分全国、湖北省、中国其他地区(以下简称"湖北域外地区")三类疫情发展趋势进行预测。方法使用传染病动力学中的分块房室模型对现有数据进行拟合并估计参数,用定参后的模型对未来疫情发展进行模拟。结果湖北省与湖北域外地区模型拟合参数及在不同人群中的转移模式具有一定地理差异性,湖北域外地区显示出更好的态势。预测湖北省和湖北域外地区现有确诊病例降至0人的时间分别为2020年5月和2020年4月。结论预测疫情可于2020年5月下旬结束,充足的医疗资源投入和对疑似人群进行更加全面和准确的排查,对控制疫情具有重要作用。

Objective To recognize the development pattern of COVID-19 epidemic,and to predict the development trend of the epidemic in three categories:the country,Hubei province,and areas outside Hubei province.Methods The BloComp model was used to fit existing data.With the estimated parameters,we simulated future epidemic development.Results The pattern of virus transfer among different populations in Hubei province was significantly different from that outside Hubei province.It is predicted by the BloComp model that the time when the number of confirmed cases fell to zero in Hubei province and areas outside Hubei will be May 2020 and April 2020,respectively.Conclusions The epidemic situation will end at the end of May 2020.Adequate medical resources investment and more comprehensive and accurate investigation of suspected people play important roles in controlling the epidemic situation.