新冠肺炎疫情对经济金融的冲击研究——基于国际文献综述及其扩展分析

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Discussions Based on International Literature Review and Related Conclusions

回顾20世纪以来几次主要疫情对经济金融的影响,并对本次疫情爆发后各类国际文献进行总结,在此基础上就新冠肺炎疫情对经济金融的冲击效应进行研判,主要结论如下:持续扩散的新冠肺炎疫情对世界经济和金融均会造成巨大冲击,现代经济强大的关联性将放大本次新冠肺炎疫情造成的经济损失;疫情对国家(或经济体)、企业与家庭的冲击具有很大的异质性,对金融业的冲击具有短期内过度反应的特征;疫情总体上将降低公司价值,增加国家、企业与家庭的负债率,对经济的冲击兼具供给冲击和需求冲击的特征,并且持续的供给冲击带来的需求冲击将大于供给冲击本身。为了缓解新冠肺炎疫情对经济金融的负面冲击效应,世界各国需要开展深入、广泛的国际政治经济合作,国际组织也需要在此过程中发挥积极作用。对于中国而言,短期内需要综合应用财政政策、货币政策、产业政策和汇率政策来有效应对疫情冲击,中长期则需要充分考虑内生增长动力问题和经济发展模式转型问题。

This study examines the economic and financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an examination of the economic and financial effects of several major pandemics that have occurred since the beginning of the 20 th century and based on a review of international literature published after the COVID-19 outbreak.The continuous spread of the COVID-19 pandemic will significantly affect the world’s economy and financial systems,and strong interdependence between the current economic systems will amplify the economic losses from the pandemic.The pandemic will have varied effects on different countries(or economies),firms,and households.It seems that the financial sector has overreacted to the effects in the short-term.In general,the pandemic will lower the value of firms,make nations,firms,and households more indebted,and impact both supply and demand.Furthermore,the sustained effect on supply will lead to a more significant effects on demand than the effect on supply itself.To mitigate the negative economic and financial effects from the pandemic,nations worldwide need in-depth and comprehensive political and economic cooperation.International organizations should also play an active role in facilitating this cooperation.For China,an effective response to the effects of the pandemic requires comprehensive employment of fiscal,monetary,industrial,and exchange rate policies in the short run and serious considerations given to the organic growth and transformation of economic development in the medium and long term.