新冠肺炎疫情与中国经济:基本判断、影响特征与政策协同

The COVID-19 Pandemic and China’s Economy:General Outlook,Specific Characteristics,and Collaboration Between Policies

通过归纳新冠肺炎疫情影响经济发展不同的观点,判断此次疫情会对中国经济产生较大冲击,并且这种冲击在短期甚至中期无法消除,需要一个较长时间的平复和回归。冲击具体表现为扭曲中国正常的社会经济运行秩序、降低"三驾马车"对经济增长的贡献、重创中小企业、阻梗创新进程。由此提出应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击经济必须处理好的六大关系:处理好宏观政策之间的协同关系;处理好抗击疫情举措短期效应与长期效应的协同关系;处理好保护企业和行业产业存量与催生增量的协同关系;处理好政府帮扶与企业自救的协同关系;处理好抗击疫情目标与实现国家重大目标的协同关系;处理好国内与全球抗击疫情冲击的协同关系。

After reviewing a large variety of views on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic development,we determined that the pandemic will have a considerable impact on China’s economy that will not fade in either the short or medium term.In other words, it will take China many years to recover from the impact of COVID-19.Specifically,the effects of the pandemic will distort China’s regular social and economic order;reduce the contributions of consumption,investment, and export to economic growth;inflict severe damage to small-and medium-size businesses;and slow the progress of innovation.To manage the effects of the pandemic,it is imperative for economic policies to effectively manage collaboration within the following six relationships:various macroeconomic policies;short-and long-term measures to fight the pandemic;policies aimed at protecting existing businesses and promoting the creation of new ones;bail-out and bail-in;targets in term of fighting the pandemic and those that were set in national strategies;and fighting the pandemic in China and other countries.