财政支持下的货币发行与中美新冠肺炎疫情福利比较

Currency Issuance under Fiscal Support and a Comparison between Welfare in China and the United States under the COVID-19 Pandemic

基于财政、货币与内生增长动态分析框架,理论上分析财政、货币对经济增长的影响机制,并用VAR检验中美真实经济中三者的关系,最后利用这种经济机制分析此次新冠肺炎对中美福利所带来的影响,结果显示,公共财政与经济增长存在稳定关系,基于公共财政的货币发行也需与经济增长相匹配;虽然新冠肺炎疫情短期对两国经济增长造成了很大的冲击,但对整体福利所产生的影响并不大。因此,中国在复工、复产有序推进的情况下,应采取适度宽松的货币政策保障市场流动性;政府公共支出更应投向具有外部性的生产要素,如新基建、公共卫生和人力资本等领域。

Employing the dynamic analytic framework for public finance,currency,and organic growth,we theoretically analyzed the influence mechanism of public finance and currency on economic growth.A vector autoregression model was used to examine the actual relationships between the three variables in China and the United States.The mechanism was then used to analyze COVID-19’s influence on welfare in China and the United States.The results showed that there was a stable correlation between public finance and economic growth.Therefore,currency issuance based on public finance should be in line with the level of economic growth.Although,COVID-19 has a substantial impact on the two economies in the short run, the effects on overall welfare were not significant.As factories and businesses are reopening orderly in China,a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance should be adopted to maintain market liquidity.More government expenditures should be channeled to factors with externalities,such as new infrastructure,public health,and human capital.