美国QE4政策对世界主要经济体的经济影响与中国对策

The Economic Fallout of the United States'Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing on Major Economies and China,s Countermeasures

为了遏制经济衰退,2020年3月16日美国开始实施第四轮量化宽松货币政策。运用GTAP模型分析其首批7000亿美元量化宽松计划对世界主要经济体的经济影响,结论显示:一方面,美国的QE4政策能够显著提高本国的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和消费支出、资本净收益率,并且有助于改善美国的贸易条件,但导致中国、英国、欧盟、日本和韩国的上述宏观经济效益明显降低;另一方面,还导致美国出口减少,进口增加,使美国贸易逆差进一步扩大,但使中国等经济体出口增加,进口降低,贸易顺差增加;此外,还能使美国的总产出小幅下降,物价水平明显上升,但使中国、英国、欧盟、日本和韩国的总产出小幅增加,物价总体水平小幅下降。

A Global Trade Analysis Project model was employed to analyze the economic fallout of the United States’ first batch of USD 700 billion in its fourth round of quantitative easing(QE4) on major economies.The study’s conclusions are as follows:On the one hand,QE4 could considerably improve the United States’ GDP,social benefits,residents’ income and consumer expenditure,the net rate of return of capital,and terms of trade,but it would result in the notable deterioration of the above macroeconomic variables in China,the UK,the EU,and South Korea.On the other hand,QE4 reduced the United States’ export and increased its import,with expanding trade deficit,while in economies such as China,QE4 had the opposite effects.In addition,QE4 also slightly reduced total output in the United States,and in turn,substantially increased the price level.In China,the UK,the EU,Japan,and South Korea,QE4 slightly increased total output and slightly decreased the overall price level.Based on the above conclusions,the authors suggest that the relevant authorities in China should optimize the environment for investment,provide sufficient support to unemployed workers in major industries,and balance export and import trade in order to promote stable economic growth.