黄金储备影响因素的国际比较与后疫情时代中国黄金储备制度调整

An International Comparison of the Factors Affecting Gold Reserve Holdings and the Adjustment of China,s Gold Reserve Regime in the Post-Pandemic Era

基于29个国家黄金储备样本进行的计量研究显示,影响一国黄金储备的主要因素是经济发展水平、货币国际化程度、国际储备规模和外部冲击强度。21世纪以来,中国的黄金储备虽然有一定的增长,但与中国经济的全球地位及外汇储备规模并不匹配。由于储备货币发行国普遍实行极度量化宽松和超低利率的货币政策,后疫情时代,全球经济不确定性和复杂性剧增,储备货币的风险上升,中国的黄金储备制度有必要进行调整,减持外汇储备,增持黄金储备,以实现国际储备流动性、盈利性和安全性的平衡,促进人民币国际化的可持续发展。

A quantitative study on the gold reserves of a sample of 29 countries indicated that the level of economic development,the level of currency internationalization,the size of international reserve holdings,and the severity of external shock were key variables affecting a country’s gold reserve holdings.China’s gold reserve holdings have increased since the turn of this century,but the size of the holdings does not match what is implied by China’s role in the global economy.Against the backdrop of monetary policies that are characterized by extreme quantitative easing and excessively low interest rates in most reserve currency issuers,the global economy in the post-pandemic era will be full of uncertainties and complex issues.The heightened risk associated with reserve currencies is one of these issues.Therefore,to maintain balance among the requirements of liquidity,profitability,and safety of international reserve holdings,as well as to promote the sustainable development of RMB internationalization,China needs to adjust its gold reserve regime to reduce foreign reserve holdings while increasing gold reserve holdings.