基于灰色线性回归组合预测模型的牡丹江旅游人数预测研究

Study on Forecast of Tourist Number in Mudanjiang Based on Grey Linear Regression Combination Forecasting Model

针对牡丹江旅游人数预测问题,考虑到旅游人数变化是受多种因素影响的信息不完全灰色系统,利用单一模型预测处理,效果往往并不理想.因此,本文通过建立灰色线性回归组合预测模型来研究这一问题.研究结果表明,所建立的组合预测模型的拟合效果优于所选单一模型,具有较好的预测精度及稳定性.并利用此组合预测模型对牡丹江2019年-2021年的旅游人数作了短期预测,可为牡丹江市未来旅游规划提供较科学的数据资料依据.

In view of the problem of Mudanjiang tourist number prediction,considering that the change of tourist number is influenced by many factors,the effect of single prediction model is often not ideal.Therefore,this paper studies this problem by establishing grey linear regression combined forecasting model.The results show that the fitting effect of the combined forecasting model is better than that of the single model,and it has better forecasting accuracy and stability.The combined forecasting model is used to forecast the number of tourists in Mudanjiang from 2019 to 2021,which can provide a scientific basis for future tourism planning in Mudanjiang.