基本养老保险中央调剂制度的效应研究——基于地区公平的视角

Study on the Effect of Central Adjustment System of Basic Endowment Insurance-from the Perspective of Regional Equity

中央调剂制度作为平衡各地养老基金财务压力的转移支付政策,实行过程中做好地区公平十分关键。本文首先对调剂制度的内含参数进行解读,构建制度指标和客观指标对地区角色进行区分;然后基于合理预期,对各省份养老基金的运行情况进行预测分析;最后通过情景对比法,分析现行制度的地区效应差异。研究发现,上海、山东等省份因为制度指标和客观指标的差异,提供了不合理的调剂金贡献,导致自身情况迅速恶化;而四川则获得了过量的基金流入。结果表明,在逐步提高调剂比例的过程中,应建立相应的反馈调节机制以及地方财政的协调机制,降低地区间不公平现象的影响。

As a transfer payment policy to balance the financial pressure of pension funds in different regions, it’s important to emphasize on regional equity in the process of the central adjustment fund system.This paper first interprets the internal indicators of the reallocation system, then constructs institutional and objective indicators to distinguish the roles of each region. Based on rational expectation, an actuarial model is built to forecast and analyze the operation of the pension funds in each province, through scenario comparison,it is found that due to the different view of the two indicators, provinces such as Shanghai and Shandong provide unreasonable contribution, which leads to rapid deterioration of their own situation, while Sichuan obtain excessive fund inflow. The results show that in the process of increasing the rate of adjustment, the corresponding feedback mechanism and local fiscal coordination mechanism should be established to reduce the impact of regional inequality.