我国内债与外债互动关系的实证研究

The Test of Interactive Relationship between Internal and External Debt in China

事实已经证明,内债与外债不仅成为国家建设资金来源的重要渠道,而且已经成为国家宏观经济调控的重要工具。文章运用计量经济工具检验了中国内债与外债的互动关系。研究得出:首先,在中国经济发展过程中,需要大量的建设资金,内债与外债作为重要的筹资渠道,二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;其次,从短期来看,由于二者存在负向的替代效应,可以通过发行内债有效地控制外债规模;最后,从长期来看,二者存在互相冲击效应并趋于均衡状态。针对于此,政府相关部门应根据二者的替代效应与冲击效应来制定借债政策以促进经济持续稳定增长。

The fact has proved that internal and external debt not only became an important channel to raise construction fund but also a significant macroeconomic management tool in China.This paper tests the relationship of internal and external debt in China by econometric methods.The results show the next three conclusions.Firstly,China needs a large number construction fund in economic development.As the major funding resources,internal and external debt has the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between each other;Secondly,due to the negative substitution effect between them in the short run,the government may control the scale of external debt effectively through issuing internal debt;Thirdly,in the long run,they have the impact effect on each other and tend to equilibrium.In view of that,the related government department should formulate the borrowing policy according to the substitution effect and impact effect between internal and external debt for promoting the economic development continuously and stably.