基于FTA-BN法的储存环节涉氨设备氨泄漏概率风险分析

Leakage Probability Risk Analysis of Ammonia-related Devices in Storage Section Based on the FTA-BN Method

液氨泄漏事故在储存环节较为频发,为分析涉氨设备氨泄漏发生原因并计算其可能性,将故障树与贝叶斯网络结合,引入条件概率,运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力对储存环节涉氨设备氨泄漏事故进行定量风险分析。计算分析结果表明,管道发生氨泄漏的概率要大于储罐,分别为0.0350、0.0302;整个储存环节,由于设备原因导致氨泄漏的概率为0.0641。

Ammonia leakage occurs more frequently in storage section.In order to analyze the causes of ammonia leakage and quantitatively calculate its probability,having the fault tree analysis(FTA)combined with the Bayesian network(BN)and the conditional probability adopted in this paper to perform quantitative risk analysis was implemented.The result showed that,the probability of ammonia leakage in the pipeline is less than that in the storage tank,i.e.0.0350 and 0.0302,respectively;in the storage section,the probability of ammonia leakage due to equipment reasons is 0.0641.