全球经济增长面临的困境与出路

The Predicament and Outlet of Global Economic Growth

2008年金融危机爆发表明全球实体经济运行的非均衡是不可持续的。危机十年,许多全球层面、区域层面和国家层面的结构性矛盾继续深化,为全球经济前景抹上了一层阴影。伴随世界各国经济复苏陷入踟蹰,全球经济愈发呈现出日本化的特点,长期的低增长、低利率、低通胀,成为困惑世界各国政府的难题。在全球经济增长的理论框架下,通过对发展瓶颈的分析和前景的研判,全球经济刺激与复苏缓慢的失败之踵在于供给侧结构的恶化、内生需求的不足和国际贸易与金融体系对潜在增长的拖累。为防止经济陷入衰退,相比凯恩斯主义的货币政策、财政政策刺激,全球层面的结构性改革更为重要,世界各国政府需要打破政策窠臼,积极谋求政策协调和全球治理,全球经济才有望在跋涉之后迎来新生契机。

The outbreak of financial crisis indicated that the disequilibrium of global real economy is unsustainable.In the decade after the crisis,many structural contradictions at the global,regional and national levels continued to deepen,casting a shadow on the global economic outlook.With the economic recovery falling into hesitation,the global economy is increasingly characterized as japanazation.Low growth,low interest rate and low inflation have become a puzzle for governments around the world.Under the theoretical framework of global economic growth,through the analysis of bottlenecks and the study of prospects,the failure of slow global economic stimulus and recovery come from the deterioration of supply side structure,the lack of endogenous demand and the drag of international trade and financial system on potential growth.In order to prevent the economy from falling into recession,compared with Keynesian monetary policy and fiscal policy stimulus,structural reform at the global level is more important.Governments around the world need to break policy stereotypes and seek policy coordination and global governance actively,so the global economy can usher in a new opportunity after the trek.