智能井系统井喷失控风险事故树分析

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS ON BLOWOUT RISK OF SMART WELL SYSTEM

智能井系统是完井领域的一门新兴技术。由于其自身结构以及所应用的复杂储层环境等因素,智能井系统在现场安全,尤其是井喷失控方面风险较大。采用事故树法,以智能井井喷失控为顶事件,结合地质、装备、设计及人工操作等基本事件,建立智能井井喷失控评价模型,通过最小径集和结构重要度,分析关键风险因素,并根据智能井本身的特点赋予各事件不同的概率值,最终提出相应的控制方法。结果表明,智能井系统井喷失控的风险比常规钻井风险更高,在应用时要额外注意监测与控制信号双向传递的通畅性,以便更好的控制井喷风险,降低生产损失。

Smart well system is a new technology proposed in the completion direction.Due to the complex well structure and applied strata environments,the intelligent well system may have greater risks in the field,in which blowout out of control is a big problem.Adopting fault tree method with the top event of smart well blowout out of control combination with the events of geology,equipment,design and artificial operation,etc,a risk evaluation model has been established in this research.The major risk factors are analyzed through the minimal path set and structure importance.Each event is given different values according to the characteristics of smart well system.Then the related control methods have been proposed.The results indicate that the blowout out of control probability of smart well system is much larger than that of traditional drilling.When using the smart well technology,the two-way transmission of monitoring and control signals should be guaranteed all the time,so as to better control the blowout risk and reduce production losses.