广州市南沙区农业区域海平面上升应对策略

RESILIENCE STRATEGIES TO IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN NANSHA DISTRICT OF GUANGZHOU

海平面上升将造成低地淹没、风暴潮加剧、海岸侵蚀等一系列生态环境影响。珠江三角洲地区农业系统发达,洪涝灾害频繁;鉴于粤港澳大湾区建设的重要性及其所面临的海岸灾害的高风险性,针对该地区农业用地受海平面上升和风暴潮灾害影响的研究十分必要。本研究以广州市南沙区农业区域为对象,采用"源-途径-受体-影响"框架构建农业区域脆弱性评估模型,以暴露度、敏感性和适应性为基础构建评估指标体系,并基于ArcGIS平台定量化评估未来海平面上升和风暴潮对研究区域潜在的淹没风险、经济损失及其脆弱性空间分布特征。结果表明,在最低灾害风险预景和最高灾害风险预景下,南沙区农业区域淹没面积占比分别为73.38%和87.96%,经济损失分别为389738.55万元和714049.79万元;南沙中部地区的农业区域淹没风险较大,但北部和南部的农业区域脆弱性较高。研究进一步提出,未来可以通过防御、适应及迁移等一系列应对策略降低南沙农业区域的受灾风险和损失。

It envinces that sea level rise aggravates low-lying terrain inundation,storm surges,beach erosion,and other ecological damages.The developed agricultural system in the Pearl River Delta is at a high risk to floods;and,in light of the tactical significance of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its high vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surges,it urgently requires to study their impacts on the agricultural areas in this region.Taking Nansha District,Guangzhou City,Guangdong Province,China as the study area,this study builds a vulnerability evaluation model of agricultural areas with the Source-PathwayReceptor-Consequence framework using an indicator system upon exposure,sensibility,and adaptation,and quantitatively predicts the inundation risk level,financial loss,and vulnerability patterns of varied scenarios of sea level rise superimposed with storm surges with the Arc GIS.The main findings include 1)the stimulated proportion of inundated areas in minimum-risk and maximum-risk scenarios is 73.38%and 87.96%respectively,and the estimated financial loss in both scenarios is RMB 3,897.3855 million and 7,140.4979 million,respectively;2)the central Nansha will suffer from a higher inundation risk,and the northern and southern agriculatural parts within the study area have a higher vulnerability to flood disasters.Resilience strategies—through defense,adaptation,or relocation—for each vulnerable zone are then proposed accordingly.