中国地方政府债务持续期的空间生存分析

The Spatial Survival Analysis on the Duration of Local Government Debt in China

区域经济异质关联框架中,用持续期测算地方政府债务的可持续性,对于地方政府债务风险的跨期审慎管理具有重要的现实意义。利用修正KMV模型和空间生产函数构建地方政府债务持续期估算框架,分析其影响因素,并基于中国省级地方政府债务相关数据,考虑各地方政府收支的个体异质性和空间相关性,利用具有个体异质性的空间生存分析模型,实证建模分析地方政府债务的持续期及其影响因素。研究表明,地方政府自2010年起不发生债务违约事件的概率已降至3.57%;省级地方政府债务持续期具有显著的较强个体异质性和较弱空间关联性;财政分权和城镇化率显著正向提升持续期,而借款融资利率、债务负担率、人均GDP增长率和固定资产投资对数负向减少持续期。

Using duration to measure the sustainability of local government debt in the framework of regional economic heterogeneous correlation has important practical significance for the inter-period prudent management of local government debt risk.The modified KMV model and the spatial production function are used to construct a framework for estimating the duration of local government debt.The influencing factors are analyzed which consider the individual heterogeneity and spatial correlation of local government revenues and expenditures based on the data of provincial government debt in China.Using the spatial survival analysis model with individual heterogeneity,analyzes the duration of local government debt and its influencing factors.The results show that the probability that local governments will not default has fallen to 3.57%since 2010.The duration of provincial-level local government debt has significant strong individual heterogeneity and weak spatial correlation.Fiscal decentralization and urbanization rate have significantly increased the duration,while the borrowing financing interest rate,debt burden rate,growth rate of GDP per capita,and logarithm of fixed asset investment have reduced the duration.