生育、养老保险基金可持续与养老金待遇机制调整

Fertility,Pension Fund Sustainability and Adjustment of Pension Treatment Mechanism

通过构建人口预测模型和养老金收支模型,以城镇职工统筹账户养老金为例,从养老金待遇机制调整角度探究不同生育水平对“两个百年目标”期内养老金财务状况的影响。依据现实可行参数进行模拟发现:提高生育水平无法改变未来养老金出现累计赤字的局面;单纯提高生育水平而不调整养老金待遇机制,长期内虽然减少了养老金累计赤字,但是在短期内会恶化养老金财务状况;在提高生育水平的同时采取动态降低养老金待遇的机制,可以实现宏观上养老基金可持续和微观上个人养老金增长的双重目标。上述研究的政策启示在于,生育政策调整要与养老制度调整相配套,尤其是养老金待遇机制,这样生育政策才能更有效,养老基金才能更持续。

Through the construction of population prediction model and pension income and expenditure model,taking the pension of urban employees as an example,the influence of different fertility levels on pension financial status is explored from the perspective of pension treatment mechanism adjustment.Based on realistic and feasible parameters,it is found that:Raising the level of fertility cannot change the situation in which pensions generate cumulative deficits If we only raise the birth level without adjusting the pension treatment mechanism,although the accumulated deficit of pension in the long run is reduced,it will worsen the financial situation of pension in the short run.Raising the fertility level and adopting a mechanism for dynamically reducing pension benefits,the dual goals of macroscopic pension fund sustainability and microscopic personal pension growth can be achieved.The policy enlightenment of the above research is that the adjustment of the fertility policy should be matched with the adjustment of the pension system,especially the pension treatment mechanism,so that the fertility policy can be more effective and the pension fund can be more sustainable.