多维视角下城市家庭贫困脆弱性实证研究

Empirical Study on the Vulnerability to Poverty of Urban Household from Multi-dimensional Perspectives

利用中国城市家庭微观调查数据,构建概率模型,以三阶段可行广义最小二乘法估计的参数值度量贫困脆弱性,从全国、地区、家庭多维视角进行实证分析。研究发现:家庭福利服从平方根形式正态分布,并不具有传统一致性;城市相对贫困严峻且暂时性贫困现象更为普遍;河南、湖南是未来城市贫困高发地区,广西、湖北相对贫困趋重,北京则区域性贫困特征明显。女性户主善于规避家庭绝对贫困,男性户主则在相对贫困方面更具应对优势;随着户主年龄增长,家庭贫困脆弱性呈现周期性波动;孩子抚养和家庭心理问题成为加剧贫困脆弱性重要因素,婚姻与成员教育的均衡提高的抑制效应显著。

Using the micro-survey data of urban households in China,a probability model is constructed and it measures the poverty vulnerability by parameters estimated by three-stage feasible generalized least squares method,and then conducted an empirical analysis from the multi-dimensional perspectives of the country,region and household.The study finds that family welfare obeys square root normal distribution and fails to possess traditional consistency.In China,urban relative poverty is severe and temporary poverty is more common,Henan and Hunan are the areas with high incidence of urban poverty in the future,Guangxi and Hubei tend to be relatively poor,and Beijing reveals an obvious regional poverty characteristic.Female heads of household have the gift of avoiding absolute poverty,while male heads of household have more advantages in coping with relative poverty.As the head of household grows older,the poverty vulnerability level fluctuates cyclically.Child rearing and family psychological issues have become significant factors in aggravating the poverty vulnerability,while marriage and balanced improvement of the educational level of each member show good inhibitory effects.Based on the conclusion,it provides practical guidance for the urban level in the critical stage of poverty alleviation.