能源资源禀赋对碳排放的影响与传导机制——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

Influence of Energy Resource Endowment on Carbon Emission and Its Transmission Mechanism:An Empirical Analysis based on Spatial Econometric Model

中国实现碳强度下降目标面临一系列约束条件,其中之一就是中国“多煤、贫油、少气”的“高碳”能源资源禀赋特征。本文在构建能源资源禀赋影响碳排放的数理模型与分析框架的基础上,通过空间面板数据模型实证检验能源资源禀赋通过人均收入、能源效率、能源消费结构、产业结构、市场开放度、外商直接投资、能源价格等中介变量对碳排放影响的强度、方向及传导机制。研究表明:省际碳排放具有空间正相关性和集聚特征。能源资源禀赋抑制碳排放的主要途径是“资源诅咒”效应,通过降低人均收入进而抑制能源消费和碳排放增长。尽管如此,能源资源禀赋通过提高煤炭在能源消费结构中所占比重和第二产业在国民经济中所占比重、降低能源价格、降低市场开放度、阻碍外资流入和降低能源效率的途径推动碳排放上升。

China faces a series of constraints to achieve the goal of carbon intensity reduction,one of which is the“high carbon”energy resource endowment characteristics of“more coal,less oil and less gas”.Based on the construction of the mathematical model and analysis framework of energy resource endowment influencing carbon emissions,this paper empirically tests the intensity,direction and transmission mechanism of energy and resource endowment′s impact on carbon emissions through per capita income,energy efficiency,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,market openness,foreign direct investment,energy price and other intermediary variables.The results show that:inter provincial carbon emissions have spatial positive correlation and agglomeration characteristics.The main way to curb carbon emissions is the“resource curse”effect,which can restrain the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions by reducing per capita income.However,the energy and resource endowment promotes the increase of carbon emissions by increasing the proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure and the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy,reducing energy prices,reducing market openness,hindering the inflow of foreign capital and reducing energy efficiency.