中国生育率持续低迷的风险、适应与政策选择

The Risk,Adaptation and Policy Choice Faced by China due to Sustainable Lower on Fertility Rate

中国当前的人口生育率持续低迷已经形成人口风险,且已经具有整体性、长期性和系统性的风险性质。风险区目前在于一孩生育上。这可以从中国女性孩次生育率变化情况和生育旺盛期女性未婚占比提高情况看出。针对这种人口风险,需要引入适应性管理的风险管理理念和模式,通过提升适应能力,制定适应规划,寻找风险减缓与适应相结合,具有协同效应的政策选项。

China’s current downward trend in fertility rate has caused with a holistic,dynamic,long-term and systematic risk in its population.The risk zone is currently in the birth of the first child that can be found by checking the parity fertility rate in China and proportion of unmarried women in China.In view of such population risk,it is necessary to introduce adaptive risk management concepts and models,to formulate adaptation plans by improving the adaptability,and find a policy choice which combines risk mitigation and adaptation and with synergistic effect.