农产品短缺点与中国农业对外直接投资--基于开放二元经济模型的分析

Shortage Point of Agricultural Goods and China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Agriculture Sector

本文基于开放二元经济模型和小岛清的比较优势理论,对转型国家的农业对外直接投资进程进行了理论分析,并对中国的数据展开了验证,研究结果发现:(1)转型国家在农业生产率增长迟缓、农业劳动力不足以及农业资源禀赋限制的条件下,将会迎来开放条件下的农产品短缺点,进而推动农业对外直接投资的进程,而且农业对外直接投资与农产品进口之间存在互补关系。(2)最晚在2009年中国迎来了开放条件下的农产品短缺点,农业劳动力和农业资源禀赋是影响中国农业对外直接投资的重要因素。(3)中国农业对外直接投资具有效率寻求和农业资源寻求的动机,自2009年以后中国农业对外直接投资在更多地寻求农业资源。(4)中国农业对外直接投资与农产品进口存在显著的互补关系,工业增长扩大了中国的农产品进口。本文的研究为转型国家的农业对外直接投资进程提供了理论支持并揭示了其发展规律。

Basing on the open dualistic economy model and the theory of comparative advantage propounded by Kojima,this paper conducted detailed theoretical and empirical analysis of outward foreign direct investment by China in agriculture sector.The results reveal:Firstly,due to stagnant growth in agricultural productivity,labor shortages and insufficient resources,the open transition countries tend to experience the shortage point of agricultural goods.This,in turn,becomes a driving force for the development of outward foreign direct investment in agriculture sector.Moreover,a complementary relationship between the outward foreign direct investment and the imports in agriculture sector is established during this period.Secondly,China experienced such shortage point in 2009,while the agricultural labor force and the resource endowment became important factors in China’s outward foreign direct investment in agriculture sector.Thirdly,China’s outward foreign direct investment has continued to seek more efficiencies and resources,with specific motivation of resource seeking since 2009.Forthly,the shortage point gave rise to a significant complementary relationship between China’s outward foreign direct investment and the imports in agriculture sector,and the industrial growth increased the China’s agricultural imports.These outcomes of this paper provide theoretical support and give an indepth appreciation of the developments of foreign direct investment in agriculture sector in the case of the transition countries.