基于蒙特卡罗法的架空输变电线路杆塔结构可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of the Structure of Overhead Transmission Tower Based on Monte Carlo Method

针对传统架空输变电线路杆塔结构可靠性分析方法没有明确杆塔可靠度,导致存在可靠性分析效果较差的问题,提出基于蒙特卡罗法的架空输变电线路杆塔结构可靠性分析方法。依据架空输变电线路,分析架空输变电线路杆塔结构。采用蒙特卡罗法,获取架空输变电线路杆塔可靠度,随机抽样分析架空输变电线路杆塔结构的可靠性,确定结构是否出现失效情况,利用随机变量统计法,并结合正态分布函数,得到杆塔结构可靠性与实际失效概率的关系,实现对架空输变电线路杆塔结构可靠性的分析。实验结果表明,该方法可靠性分析性能更好,有助于保证整个电力网络的安全有效运行。

As the traditional reliability analysis method for the tower structure of overhead transmission lines fails to clearly define the reliability of the tower,leading to poor reliability analysis effect,this paper proposes a new reliability analysis method for the tower structure of overhead transmission lines based on the Monte Carlo method. The tower structure is analyzed according to the overhead transmission line. The reliability of the tower of transmission lines is obtained using the Monte Carlo method,and the structure of the tower is analyzed by random sampling to determine whether failure occurs to the structure. The relationship between the tower structure reliability and actual failure probability is obtained using the random variable statistics combined with the normal distribution function to realize the reliability analysis of the tower structure of overhead transmission lines. The experimental results show that the method has better analytical performance and is helpful to ensure the safe and effective operation of the whole power network.