外商直接投资对浙江省出口结构的影响——基于VAR模型的脉冲响应分析

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Zhejiang's Export Structure——Impulse Response Analysis Based on VAR Model

自改革开放以来,浙江省作为沿海发达地区外商直接投资取得长足进展,出口贸易结构不断升级。基于浙江省1986—2018年的时间序列数据构建了向量自回归(VAR)模型,对浙江省出口贸易结构受到外商直接投资的脉冲响应进行了实证分析。研究表明:外商直接投资对优化浙江省出口贸易结构存在显著的促进作用,并且两者之间存在较稳定的长期均衡关系,进而认为浙江省亟需深化对外开放、促进FDI高质量发展。

Since the reform and opening up,as a developed coastal region,Zhejiang Province has made considerable progress in foreign direct investment,and its export trade structure has been continuously upgraded.Based on the time series data of Zhejiang Province from 1986 to 2018,this paper constructs a vector autoregressive(VAR)model to analyze the impulse response of export trade structure to FDI in Zhejiang Province.The research shows that foreign direct investment has a significant promotion effect on optimizing the export trade structure of Zhejiang Province,and there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between them.Furthermore,it is believed that Zhejiang Province urgently needs to deepen the opening up and promote the highquality development of FDI.