最大现金损失视角下的海外油气投资项目风险分析与价值评估

Risk analysis and value evaluation of oil&gas investment projects abroad from the MCI perspective

在评估油气投资项目价值时,部分国际石油公司将最大负现金流指标称为最大现金损失,这提示投资者项目面临的风险状况,也影响石油公司对项目的基准收益率水平的要求。项目停滞风险可能使项目最大负现金流变成最大现金损失;油价波动因合同条款的影响而使投资者收益呈现非对称性。针对这两种风险问题,采用决策树法和蒙特卡洛模拟法定量评价两类风险对项目投资价值的负面影响,建立风险修正后的基准收益率公式,定量测算其风险补贴率。传统的现金流折现法(DCF)评估海外油气项目投资价值通常会出现单向偏差,需要结合投资项目的风险暴露状况,修正基本收益率,以体现风险因素对项目投资价值的侵蚀。

Some international oil companies refer to the maximum negative cash flow index as the maximum cash impairment when evaluating the value of oil and gas investment projects,which indicates the risk of investors’projects and aff ects the oil companies’requirements on the benchmark yield level of projects.The negative eff ects of two kinds of risk on project investment value are that the risk of project stagnation may turn the maximum negative cash fl ow of the project into the maximum cash impairment and the fluctuation of oil price makes investors’returns appear asymmetric due to the influence of contract terms.They can be evaluated quantitatively by Decision Tree method&Monte Carlo method,and an equation of risk-adjusted benchmark yield is formed to calculate the risk subsidy rate.The paper suggests that conventional discounted cash fl ow method is prone to one-way deviation when evaluating the value of investment of oil and gas projects abroad and it is necessary to consider the risk exposures and adjust benchmark return in order to refl ect the erosion of risk factors on the value of investment.