中国成品油消费现状及“十四五”需求预测

Refined oil consumptions in China and its demand forecast during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

中国成品油消费增速逐渐放缓,消费柴汽比不断下降,煤油消费占比提高。扩大成品油市场准入,废止原油、成品油市场管理办法,延长新能源汽车补贴年限,加快推动M100甲醇汽车应用,这些政策都在加快市场化进程,鼓励清洁能源发展。燃料乙醇、生物柴油、电动力、氢能源、燃料甲醇、煤制油、车用燃气,这些车用替代燃料的发展速度和发展前景不一,2019年合计替代汽柴油约3600万吨,预计2025年替代量在5600万吨左右,占汽柴油消费量的20%以上。在中国宏观经济预测框架之下,基于各用油行业的长期发展趋势和近期特殊情况,分情景预测“十四五”中国成品油需求量,预计2025年中国成品油需求量将达到3.12亿吨左右,“十四五”期间年均增长0.91%。其中,汽油需求将进入增长平台期,2024年前后见顶;柴油需求继续下滑,年均降幅为2.18%左右;煤油需求受疫情影响较大,将随国内外疫情得到有效控制而反弹。

Based on the gradually slowing growth rate of refined oil consumption,declining consumption ratio of diesel and gasoline,and the increasing proportion of kerosene consumption,China expands market access for refined oil products,abolishes regulations governing the market for crude oil and refined oil products,extends the period of subsidies for new energy vehicles,and accelerates the application of M100 methanol vehicles,to speed up the process of market liberalization and encouraging the development of clean energy.Fuel ethanol,biodiesel,electric power,hydrogen energy,fuel methanol,coal-to-oil and vehicle gas have different development speeds and prospects and all of them replaced totally 36 million tons of gasoline and diesel in 2019 and will replace about 56 million tons in 2025,accounting for more than 20%of the consumption of gasoline and diesel.Under the framework of China’s macroeconomic forecast,the demand for refined oil in China during the 14th Five-year Plan is predicted by scenarios based on the long-term development trend of each oil industry and the special situation in the near future.It is estimated that the demand for refined oil in China will reach about 312 million tons in 2025,with an average annual growth rate of 0.91%during the 14th five-year Plan period.Gasoline demand will enter a growth plateau,peaking around 2024.Diesel demand will continue to decline with an average annual decline of about 2.18%.The demand for kerosene will be greatly affected by the pandemic and will rebound with the effective control of the pandemic at home and abroad.