基于SWAT模型的张家口清水河流域径流模拟

SWAT Based Runoff Simulation of Qingshui River Basin in Zhangjiakou City

水资源问题是制约我国社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。以张家口市清水河流域为研究区域,基于GIS构建流域的SWAT分布式水文模型,对影响径流模型结果的几个重要参数进行敏感性分析,并应用SWAT-CUP软件进行参数率定,利用2013-2016年的实测径流量进行模型验证,分别计算气候和土地利用变化对径流量的贡献率。结果表明,校准期的效率系数(NSE)为0.74,决定系数(R^2)为0.72;验证期的NSE系数为0.76,(R^2)为0.78。气温变化对径流量变化的贡献率为36.3%,而土地利用变化对径流量变化的贡献率为10.5%,气温和土地利用变化对径流量的变化均产生一定作用,但就作用大小而言,气候变化的作用相对较大。基于这些评价指标,可知SWAT模型在张家口清水河流域径流模拟中具有很好的可靠性和适用性,可以作为该流域水资源综合管理的支撑模型之一。

Water resource limitations are restricting sustainable development of the social economy in China.In this study,the Qingshui River basin of Jiangjiakou City was selected for research,and runoff from the Qingshui River basin was simulated using the Soil&Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)distributed hydrological model.After calibration,the model was used to analyze the effects of changing land use and air temperature on runoff.The construction,calibration and verification of the SWAT model was based on the DEM,land use,land type and CMADS meteorological and hydrological data.Model sensitivity analysis was carried out on several parameters that have a pronounced effect on runoff,and SWAT-CUP(Calibration Uncertainty Program)software was used to analyze uncertainty.The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE)coefficient and determination coefficient(R^2)were used to evaluate the reliability of the SWAT model.The NSE and R^2 values were,respectively,0.74 and 0.72 for the calibration period and 0.76 and 0.78 for the validation period,indicating good model predictive power.Air temperature and land use changes were the primary factors affecting runoff in the Qingshui River basin,with temperature change making the largest contribution.The contribution of temperature change to runoff change was 36.3%,while the contribution of land use to runoff change was 10.5%.The SWAT model has good reliability and applicability for simulating runoff in the Qingshui River basin and can provide technical support for the integrated management of water resources in the basin.