基于蒙特卡罗算法的电动汽车充电负荷预测及系统开发

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction and System Development Based on Monte Carlo Algorithm

文中在分析电动汽车充电负荷特征的基础之上,利用日行驶里程、起始充电时刻、充电功率、充电时长、初始荷电状态和电动汽车保有量这6个影响因素建立了电动汽车充电负荷的预测模型,并详细介绍了利用蒙特卡罗模拟算法求解该模型的步骤。在实例中将电动汽车分为私家车、公务车和出租车,根据其特点的不同分别进行负荷预测,最终得到该区域总的电动汽车充电负荷。最后基于蒙特卡罗模拟算法开发了电动汽车充电负荷预测系统,方便使用者准确计算。

Based on the analysis of the characteristics of electric vehicle charging load,this paper establishes a fore⁃casting model of electric vehicle charging load by using the six factors of daily driving mileage,starting charging time,charging power,charging time,initial state of charge and electric vehicle ownership,and introduces the steps of solv⁃ing the model by Monte Carlo simulation algorithm in detail.In the example,electric vehicles are divided into private cars,business cars and taxis.According to their different characteristics,load forecasting is carried out respectively,and finally the total electric vehicle charging load in a certain area is obtained.Finally,based on Monte Carlo simula⁃tion algorithm,a forecasting system of electric vehicle charging load is developed to facilitate accurate calculation.